At the start of the century, we could only speculate about how technology would shape our lives in the coming years. Would people throw out their books in favor of digital content? We couldn’t really tell.

Today, things are becoming clearer. We know that people across all age groups are still reading print books, but they’re also incorporating technology into their lives in seamless ways. Not everything is done digitally, but everyone has their own way of improving their lives through tech.

Online content has helped satisfy our curiosity. We can now follow our passions with a plethora of platforms, including books but not limited to them. We have TV, social media, music platforms, online education, etc. To an extent, we’re witnessing a sort of democratization of content. It’s our interests, desires and goals that drive the content available in the 21st century, not just the whims of the creator. In many cases, products escape the full control of their creators, acquiring a life and following of their own. Even children are having an input in content creation. Parents are increasingly talking with their kids and including them in decision making when choosing what books to buy and shows to watch, so content providers have an incentive to respond to their demands.

Books themselves are witnessing some changes too. Graphic novels and comic books are as popular as ever, and many publishers are putting out illustrated adaptations of classics. Audio is also becoming popular. New formats like podcasts are gaining in popularity, and so are modern radio dramas and audiobooks.

In short, we’re living in an incredible time. Never before has there been such a wide choice of content and communication between content providers and consumers. Should this always be the case from now on, we’re sure that there are bright times ahead, too.

Source: “The Future of Publishing Is…”, Kristen McLean, London Show Daily, P.3

Though many see publishing as a declining industry, there are a lot of new entrants to the business. There have been over 900 publishing startups, as noted by consultant and Future of Publishing blogger Thad Mcilroy, who was recently interviewed by London Show Daily and shared his opinions on the state of publishing startups.

He believes that we are “in a period of extraordinary innovation and generous investment” when it comes to the startup scene in general, not just publishing. He brings artificial intelligence as an example, citing it as a reason for the launch of thousands of startups.

He also has a strong sense that the people behind publishing startups “are mostly newbie’s”, but thinks that is a good thing, as “naivete has always been an advantage for the entrepreneur”. These new startups target self-published authors instead of publishing companies and operations.

It’s interesting to note that the failure rate for publishing startups is consistent with the failure rate overall for all startups, so publishing is just as viable a field to enter as technology.

Source: “Publishing’s Startup Culture”, Andrew Richard Albanese, London Show Daily, P.29

If one thing defines the last five years in publishing, at least in English, I’d argue it’s retail consolidation, writes Michael Bhaskar. That Amazon carried on growing and dominated ebooks is unarguable.

Too many books

What about the next five years? What will be the defining change? I’d pick out two dynamics to watch-take your pick. The first involves a surplus of available product. There are too many books published is hard to dispute. With more than a million new titles in English alone, there is already a wealth of books.

A monopoly on certain must-have titles is still pretty safe bet to bring people in. But something has to give. A new focus on selection, filtering systems, recommendation engines, imprints as stores of editorial judgement, publisher brands as selectors will come into play.

Pricing, copyright, marketing, everything is and will be shaped by the fact publishing is the ultimate saturated market. Publishing across the board will become more curated.

Secondly, I think we’ll see the ongoing after-effects of retail consolidation. This drives a move towards bigger and  smaller publishers. While the middle has struggled for some time, we are entering a new era of supergiants. Penguin Random House and the merger of Nature with Springer are two examples of how the big are getting bigger.

Centralisation and fragmentation

But just as the internet and the fast, connected world promotes scale and centralization, so it also allows for and encourages fragmentation.

If you’d  have asked me what the biggest trends were likely to be over the next five years in 2010, I would have undoubtedly said ebooks, apps and digital publishing. The next five years then are about the ongoing waves from this centralization which  transforms the balance of power and unleashed an unprecedented flow of content.

We will see a new super league of publishing giants emerge, on a new scale adapted for a world of digital media, big retail and austere government spending.

Source: Frankfurt Show Daily – Magazine